Tobias Schneider
(1) After rapid advances, Syrian loyalist forces are at the brink of breaking three-year siege of Deir Ezzor city. Some thoughts below:
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(2) More than 100,000 civilians stuck in the pocket have suffered immeasurably - the humanitarian situation remains disastrous.
(3) DeZ suffered among heaviest bombing damage in war - and urban combat is about to get worse. Many civilians will likely flee up Khabur.
(4) Some speak of "race to Deir Ezzor". While Assad & Iran are anxious about US expansion (thus this offensive), coalition has no such drive
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(5) US is perfectly content w/ regime retaking territory from ISIS, but estimates loyalist forces will get bogged down in DeZ urban combat
6) Thus US continues with planning for its own DeZ offensive on east bank of Euphrates: down Khabur, past Busayrah to Mayadin and Bukamal.
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(7) Excuse bad drawing. Green notional dividing line w/ Russians. Mayadin (which US assesses as ISIS center of gravity) on wrong side
(8) Eventual goal would be link-up w/ ISF at Qaim. However, there's two big obstacles: partner forces and loyalist/Iranian disruption.
(9) Raqqa won't be mopped up for a few more weeks and while there's some compromise by opposition, still nowhere near an arrangement on DeZ.
(10) US also IMO still doesn't appreciate how its role is perceived by other actors - genuinely believes this is about fighting ISIS.
(11) Hence loyalist advance to be watched. How long to clear DeZ city? Will they bypass and move towards Omar oilfield to cut Khabur route?
(12) Assad, IRGC, and Russia have thrown full weight east for offensive - not out of some sudden desire for cooperative counter-terrorism
(13) For now, loyalist speed of ops appears to outpace initial estimates. It will be important to keep close track of IDP movements
14) As well as Iraqi side: IRGC-backed PMU groups angle along border. Goal is not only to block, but to eventually evict US from NE Syria.
(15) My own view is that Assad/Iran will outpace us, that we're fine with that, and that rather than Bukamal we ought ponder future of SDF.