Ethiopia and Egypt, both American allies, have over recent years each contributed to stability in dangerous parts of the world. That is now at risk.
Ethiopia has been indispensable to Africa’s recent diplomatic and economic development. The largest participant in United Nations peacekeeping around the world, Ethiopian troops were critical to missions in Darfur, Sudan, and Somalia. Ethiopian troops constitute the largest part of the African Standby Force, the military wing of the African Union which has sent peacekeepers to conflict areas throughout Africa. Especially important have been operations in the Sahel, the territory stretching between the Sahara and the countries to its south: Chad, Mali, Central African Republic, and Northern Nigeria.
Just last week, the region’s stability was rocked by the killing of Chad’s president and a subsequent military coup. Instability allows terrorism to flourish. In 2014, 276 school girls were kidnapped by Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, subjected to forced conversions and “marriages,” prompting Michelle Obama, among others to demand America not to look the other way.
France has put its troops into the region. America has offered intelligence sharing and logistical support – no one favors inserting U.S. troops. Real numbers of troops require African peace-keepers, and that means Ethiopia.
Egypt’s centrality to keeping peace in the Middle East is equally beyond dispute. Henry Kissinger observed, “The Arabs can’t make war in the Middle East without Egypt and they can’t make peace without Syria.” The cold peace between Egypt and Israel today at least prevents war, while the disintegration of Syria seems to prevent peace.
Egypt and Ethiopia are presently at odds, jeopardizing the good each country can otherwise do. The dispute is over the dam Ethiopia has constructed on the Blue Nile, the largest tributary to the Nile River, for whose water Egypt claims it has priority over all other nations. America hosted talks on how quickly the reservoir behind the new dam will be filled, when the rainy season starts. America’s role as a neutral intermediary, however, was lost when President Donald Trump announced that Egypt had the right to veto any diminution of Nile river flow. That pronouncement drove Ethiopia to leave the bargaining sessions in Washington.
The situation has now become even more complicated. The Ethiopian government is in civil war in Tigray, one of its provinces whose politicians dominated the previous Ethiopian government. The new Prime Minister purged Tigrayans from government and suppressed the indigenous military and political force in the province. Those forces then attacked an Ethiopian military post, and the Ethiopian government, supported by neighboring Eritrea, responded in great force.
Last month, President Joe Biden dispatched his close colleague, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, to urge Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, to constrain his troops’ activity in Tigray. Coons’ report upon his return mentioned both Tigray and the dam, two seemingly unrelated topics. The link between them is Egypt. Egypt can pressure Ethiopia by threatening to rearm Tigrayan forces through Sudan, which borders Ethiopia and has already welcomed thousands of Tigrayan refugees.
Egypt’s help could permit the Tigrayan resistance to last a very long time. A drawn-out civil war would destroy Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s plans for publicizing Ethiopia as a haven of peace and potential investment in Africa, an image Ethiopia had long been cultivating.
Further, if the atrocities alleged by Doctors Without Borders, and other neutrals, prove true, Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel-prize winning image would be irreparably damaged. Continuing war will likely lead to more human rights abuses, by both sides. Ending the civil war is necessary for Ethiopia to resume its vital peace-keeping role in Africa.
Sen. Coons’ visit to Ethiopia shows Tigray is on Biden’s radar. Biden now needs to send an envoy to Egypt, as well. Egyptian meddling in Tigray should cost it America’s ill-considered blank check over the dam. America should then broker a deal between our two allies and get both Egypt and Ethiopia back to what they can do constructively for peace.
Tom Campbell is a professor of law and a professor of economics at Chapman University. A five-term U.S. congressman, he served on the Africa Subcommittee of the International Relations Committee. He has visited over twenty countries in sub-Saharan Africa. He and his wife have taught as volunteers in Eritrea, Rwanda, and Ghana.
Editor’s note: the original version of this op-ed incorrectly referred to Abiy Ahmed as president of Ethiopia.