Ukrainian "Antonov" goes into a tailspin Saudi
"Breakthrough project," An-132D Ukrainian transport aircraft, flavored with "complete rejection of Russian components" and "real import substitution", may not be as successful and as a stable source of cost. This was announced by Russian military blog bmpd, who are employees of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), with reference to
an independent Ukrainian military expert Diana Mikhailov .
November 2016 according to all forecasts had become a pride of Ukraine, one of the few global manufacturers of transport aircraft SE "Antonov" landmark. Just three draft new and promising technology had to come out, if not to the finish line, at any rate, to get close to her, says Mikhailov. These are shown at the international aerospace show Le Bourget-2015 three new developments: two in paper form - the AN-132 and AN-188, and prototype military transport aircraft An-178.
Light transport aircraft An-132 project is being developed for the benefit of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and involves the creation of modification AN-32 with the transfer of documents and intellectual property rights to it. According to the designers, "Antonov" and the requirements of Saudi customers, the An-132 is equipped with Western engines Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150 with six-bladed composite propellers R408 firm Dowty Propellers, Liebherr manufactured life support systems and the most modern avionics Honeywell American company , and so on. D.
Such innovations not only cost a significant amount of additional costs, but also significantly impeded the project. Thus, the AN-132 aircraft project is a stable source of cost, to compensate for that, maybe it will not work, said Ukrainian expert.
Why Saudi Arabia to develop the aircraft, together with Ukraine? What are the prospects for the market, not only of these machines, but all Ukrainian aviation industry?
State Enterprise "Antonov" trying to attach the AN-132 and AN-178 anywhere on the principle that you finance the development, and we are building a new aviation company "turnkey", says
researcher Strategies and Technology Analysis Center, the chief editor of the magazine "Arms Export" Andrei Frolov.
- Ambitious country with money, who would like to become an aviation power, it is this idea may bite. For example, in April 2015 the State Enterprise "Antonov" in the presence of
Prince Turki bin Saud bin Mohammed Al Saud has signed an agreement with a subsidiary of the Saudi Organization Taqnia Aeronautics on the development and production of the An-132 in KSA. According to some estimates, the cost of R & D on light transport AN-132 is about 116 million. Dollars, of which 40 million. Kind of like paying the Saudi side. After the first flight of the prototype of the CSA must be translated even 20 million. Dollars on his test.
"SP": - Why such a project needs the Saudis, because to meet the "aviation ambitions," they could have chosen a better friend?
- Cooperation with Ukraine in this area for the time being beneficial not only because it checks the cheapest - just Ukrainians are ready to "merge" all sorts of technologies. Another thing is that every year the work with Ukraine is becoming more risky, despite the high starting positions that were in the country in the early 90's in the aviation industry. Objectively, time is working against the Ukraine, because in Soviet backlog is not fly away. In the market of their aircraft is not particularly in demand. "Antonov" afloat thanks to the airline (Antonov Airlines) and cooperation with China in the field of technology transfer and joint projections. In the domestic Ukrainian market of any military or civil aviation is not in demand.
Also, I do not rule out that, as in the case with the Ukrainian operational-tactical missile "Thunder" complex, which is also being developed for the money KSA, all these projects can serve as a legal cover for the transfer of any technology or individual components, taking into account the traditional interest Saudi Arabia, for example, different types of ballistic missiles.
"SP": - What are the prospects for other aircraft "Antonov"?
- Ukrainians are produced AN-74 (modification of the An-72) at the Kharkov aircraft factory, but this project seems "stalled". There were reports that the first ordered by Kazakhstan An-74T-200, apparently, was the last - "Branch 3656 of the National Guard of the Republic of Kazakhstan," sued the Kharkiv aviation enterprise, did not receive the ordered board.
AN-140 also produced in Kharkov, but the plant as a whole has long been in the process of bankruptcy. To a large extent, the company has lived through supplies kits, on the one hand, Iran (IrAn-140 project), on the other - in Russian. Given the well-known events, probably, AN-140 - also not "live" plane.
"SP": - Ukrainian aircraft industry the past 10 years, mass produced military transport multipurpose aircraft AN-32 at the "Antonov" in Kiev.
- Last six AN-32B along with a set of spare parts only recently been sent to Iraq. True, they say that at the moment, Ukrainians can not let these planes. However, An-32, they did at least commercially. By the way, the competence of the aircraft AN-132 (modification of the An-32) are supported by a fairly large contract for the repair of 65 aircraft AN-32 to the Indian Air Force, of which 25 units were repaired in the Ukraine, 40 - in India.
About An-70, I did not even say, because he - obviously not a "resident" for various reasons.As for the AN-148 and its modifications - the AN-158 and AN-178, most of them "live" itself An-148, but its fate is also in question. Despite all the cries about the import substitution of Kiev Russian components, make it extremely difficult, especially in the conditions of the Ukrainian economy. For example, in the framework of cooperation in Voronezh for the An-148 elements of the fuselage made, also from Russia supplied the chassis and electronics.
"SP": - it is Known that "Antonov" ordered the Russian Nizhny Novgorod enterprise "Gidromash" chassis units for the AN-178 aircraft. And now, to solve the problem, the Ukrainian company established in the German company to buy Russian chassis ...
- In the case of AN-178 we are talking about an experimental plane with some structural defects associated with centering. For it is also not particularly need the market, given that there is a hard sell even transport KC-390 Brazilian company Embraer. With regard to the German firm Antonov Salis GmbH, it is, of course, is designed to bring the chassis kits from Russia, not breaking laws. At the same time, interestingly, set the value of Nizhny Novgorod 310 000 euros, and through the company - already 450 ...
"SP": - representatives of the Ukrainian aviation industry is also specialized in the repair of equipment. With the help of such contracts can support the enterprise?
- It is possible, but not for long. Operators An-26 of their massively write off. An-32 is relatively little to maintain the aircraft industry, the more so because the market there are repairs and other proposals, particularly from the Russian Federation. Accordingly, we have available the An-26, we repair themselves, as well as the An-24.
Another thing is that the Ukrainians have a fairly powerful repair factories on other planes - not "Antonovsky," and they are, by the way, for us - serious competitors. They still have records for all aircraft, facing the Air Force of the USSR, from the helicopters and ending planes. Ukraine repairs of MiG-29, MiG-21, MiG-23, Su-27, Su-25, Su-24, IL-76, L-39, Mi-8 and Mi-24. It is clear that this business is also finite. Whatever the technique does not operate, it has a limit modes. So, these contracts will be for Ukraine more than 10 years, but it is clear that this money is not enough to feed all enterprises aircraft industry.
Number of models of military vehicles and a transport aircraft on the market is limited, and the number of players is also not great. Those niches in which state-owned enterprise "Antonov" offers aircraft AN-132 and AN-178, suggest the possibility of selling a few dozen boards, says
the head of analytical services agency "Airport" Oleg Panteleyev.
- If we talk about the An-70, then this project is so expensive that very few people want to buy the product finish, knowing there are risks. If only someone would want to buy the entire project to production on its site. But here the question arises - cooperation with Russia either difficult or even impossible. As a consequence, only some set of materials can save a partnership with Russia. Yes, and it is unclear whether this list is expanded, rather the opposite - to decline sharply.
Accordingly, it is necessary to switch to the supply from third countries or adjust production in Ukraine. But a significant number of units and appliances Ukrainians can not produce themselves. Attract Western firms - not a problem. Except for the fact that it is at times increase the cost of the project.
Thus, the potential of the Ukrainian aviation industry is, but its implementation comes up against a lack of financial capacity - as in "Antonov", and in general, the Ukrainian government. For example, in the best years of Ukrainian aviation industry did not develop very actively. Now we can only hope to third-party investors such as India in the case of the project on the basis of AN-178. Or - Saudi Arabia with the project of AN-132.
The main fact - the money for such projects need a lot, and more and more. Without external infusions to "Antonov", comparable in scale to those that receive the competitors, it is difficult to develop and to anyone to compete in the market.
