anadian Arms Exports – LAV 6.0s for Saudi Arabia National Guard – February 2016
Implications of Canadian Arms Exports – LAV 6.0s for Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia National Guard's LAV II and probable LAV 6.0 variants
By Stephen Priestley, CASR Researcher
Canada's Minister of Global Affairs, Stéphane Dion, keeps waffling on the proposed export of
. In the wake of the mass executions of Saudi political prisoners, M. Dion said "our allies are selling weapons to Saudi Arabia ... It's part of the world in which we live." This was later followed by "What's done is done and the contract is not something that we will revisit." Within a fortnight, that shifted to "It's for many years so ... over the years the minster of foreign affairs will have the duty to consider the export permits." So, the Government of Canada's done-deal has turned wobbly.
LAV III, LAV UP, LAV 6.0, LAV 700 ... what does GDLS-C mean to sell to Saudi Arabia
What we know about the proposed sale of LAV 6.0s is that, like earlier Canadian-made LAV IIs, they will be delivered to the Saudi Arabia National Guard – an organization pledged to protecting the ruling House of Saud. [1] Newly-built Saudi vehicles would be based upon the Canadian Army's upgraded LAV III – the LAV UP – but would be even more powerful.
The Canadian Forces' original LAV III was powered by a 350 hp 7.2L Caterpillar 3126 diesel and had a combat weight of just over 17 tonnes – 19 tonnes when fitted with basic add-on armour, 23.6 tonnes for the Afghan mission's LAV LORIT refit. For LAV UP, the LAV IIIs were re-engined with 450 hp 9.3L Caterpillar C9s which, together with other improvements, pushed LAV UP baseline weight to 20+ tonnes (more than a fully-loaded LAV III). LAV 6.0 with kit is 25 tonnes, gross vehicle weight 28.5 tonnes, combat weight could be 35 tonnes.
Such weights push this 'LAV' into a Medium Armoured Vehicle (MAV) weight class (30-45 tonnes). The Saudi version of LAV 6.0 will be heavier still and, thus, requires an even more more powerful engine – a 711 hp 12.5L Caterpillar C13 6-cylinder turbocharged diesel. With its horsepower doubled over that of the original LAV III, General Dynamics Land Systems - Canada originally re-dubbed this new LAV 6.0-on-steroids for the Saudis as the 'LAV 700'.
The contract value for the new Saudi LAVs jumps around. Originally given as $10B, it then became $14.5B, but is now lists as $15B (perhaps to allow for a $0.70
Loonie?). The contract covers the purchase of over 900 up-engined LAV 6.0s/'LAV 700s' in ten distinct variants.
A kind of opaque transparency? Contract secrecy and selling LAV 6.0s to Saudi Arabia
Few precise details are available about exactly which variants of the Canadian-made LAV 6.0 are to be exported to Saudi Arabia. But maker, General Dynamics Land Systems - Canada of London, ON, has issued sub-contracts to suppliers. The contract to CMI Defence based in Belgium [2] provides details on two proposed Saudi Arabia National Guard LAV 6.0 variants. CMI (known as 'Cockerill') is to provide two complete turret systems for the Saudi LAV 6.0s.
The first CMI offering is the 'Cockerill Medium- Calibre Turret ' (CMCT) which would be armed with a
Bushmaster automatic cannon. That gun would be provided by US-based Orbital ATK [3] but this cannon's calibre has yet to be released.
Here, Saudi Arabia's previous orders for early LAV II variants provide a model. Those orders included a large number of the cannon-armed LAV-25s. Based on the US Marine's LAV-25, these Infantry Fighting Vehicles are similar to the Canadian Forces' reconaissance
Coyotes.
Coyotes and LAV-25s share the Delco turret armed with fast-firing 25mm
Bushmasterchain gun along with a coaxial 7.62mm machine gun.
For the LAV 6.0 Saudi Arabia may choose to stay with 25mm
Bushmasters for commonality with their 1,000-strong LAV II fleet. But Orbital ATK has other calibre options for Cockerill Medium-Calibre Turrets, including the 30 mm Mk44 (or XM813) and 35mm
Bushmaster III.
The tank-killer LAV 6.0 Assault Gun Cockerill's 105 mm big gun option for LAV 6.0s
The second CMI offering for the Saudi LAV 6.0 purchase is the CT-CV 105HP turret. As the designation suggests, this turret is armed with a high-pressure 105 mm main gun fitted with an advanced auto-loader to speed firing. In the past, such guns have tended to be low or medium pressure weapons with accordingly reduced velocities. That was the case with the Saudi's big gunned LAV II – the LAV Assault Gun. LAV-AG was fitted with Cockerill's 90 mm CMI LCTS 90MP turret – impressive armament for a LAV but not really a 'tank-killer'. [4]
The proposed Assault Gun variant of the LAV 6.0 changes things. The Cockerill CV HP gun fires NATO 105mm ammunition (as well as some type-specific rounds) at a higher pressure than a standard NATO L7 tank gun. [5] Not only does the 105 mm CMI CT-CV 105HP turret have a full-powered main gun, that cannon can fire gun-launched anti-tank guided missiles. This
Falarick 105 missile was specifically developed by Ukraine's SKDB Luch [6] for CMI.
The
Falarick 105 gun-launched missile is laser-guided over its maximum range of 5000 m. (The
Falarick line was derived from an earlier SKDB Luch gun-launched anti-tank missile, the R-111
Stugna for use by Soviet-era 100 mm tank guns – such the T-54/T-55 D-10 gun). The CT-CV 105HP turret also has a co-axial machine gun. The CT-CV 105HP turret is part of Cockerill's 3000 Series and, thus, is closely related to the Cockerill Medium-Calibre Turret.
Canadian armoured vehicle exports to Saudi Arabia – Fumbling for details on variants
Beyond the Cockerill turret order, the LAV 6.0 order for the Saudi Arabia National Guard does not reveal its variants. That is true for most Saudi arms orders where petro-dollars are more highly valued than accountability. Doubtless, the SANG LAV 6.0 order will follow the general pattern of previous Saudi LAV II purchases. Records on overall LAV II variant exports are vague on breakdowns but they give us clues.
According to SIPRI, Canadian-made LAV II exports to Saudi Arabia by years, break down as follows: In 1990-1991 525 LAVs; 1994-2001, 987; 2000-04, 130; 2006-09, 132; and 2011-14, 879 LAVs. Of the 724 LAV IIs shipped to Saudi Arabia in 2001, 394 were the medium-calibre LAV-25 and 130 were 90mm LAV-AG. If that pattern is continued, we can expect to see more than half the LAV 6.0s fitted with CMCT and another fifth armed with CT-CV 105HP turrets.
Going further, we can use the variant breakdown of Saudi LAV IIs as a model for LAV 6.0s. The Saudi LAV IIs received US designators for Foreign Military Sales approval purposes. The US separated LAV II variants into two basic hull types – the Type I low-hulled LAVs similar to the Marine's LAV-25 and Type II raised-hull LAVs (more like the CF's
BisonISC).
Those Saudi Arabia National Guard LAV II export orders broke down as follows:
LAV II Type I Hulls (low rear roof)
LAV-25 – 25 mm ATK cannon in Delco turret, as per CF
Coyote
LAV-AG – Assault Gun anti-tank vehicle, 90 mm CMI LCTS 90MP
LAV-M – Mortar, turreted 120mm BAE/RO breech-loading mortar
LAV-AT – Anti-Tank, TOW missile in Emerson 901A1 turret
LAV II Type II Hulls (raised rear roof)
LAV-CC – Command & Control, aka LAV-C2
LAV-PC – Personnel Carrier, as per CF
Bison ISC
LAV-A – Ambulance, as per CF
Bison ambulance
LAV-AC – Ammunition Carrier to support LAV-M mortars
LAV-E – Engineering, with bulldozer or mine-plough
LAV-R – Recovery, with winch and rooftop hydraulic crane
Of all those Saudi LAV II models, only one lacks an analogous LAV 6.0 variant – that is the LAV-AC. That said, a LAV 6.0 Ammunition Carrier would differ little from a M1126
Stryker. Creating such a LAV 6.0 AC would bring total Saudi variants up to the known ten models.
Analogous LAV 6.0 variants (for a hypothetical SANG fleet of LAV 6.0 variants) follow:
LAV 6.0 Type I Hulls (low rear roof)
LAV-?? – LAV 6.0 with CMI CMCT (unknown calibre autocannon)
LAV-AG – LAV 6.0 with 105 mm gun in CMI CT-CV 105HP turret
LAV-M – LAV 6.0 with turret mortar - BAE/RO (or Patria AMOS/NEMO)
LAV-AT – LAV 6.0 with Raytheon M41
Saber turret (or equiv.)
LAV 6.0 Type II Hulls (raised rear roof)
LAV-CC – LAV 6.0 as per M1130
Stryker CV (or CF LAV III C2)
LAV-PC – LAV 6.0 fitted as per US Army M1126
Stryker DVH
LAV-A – LAV 6.0 equipped as per US Army M1133
Stryker MEV
LAV-AC – (Hypothetical LAV 6.0 Ammunition Carrier variant)
LAV-E – LAV 6.0 fitted as per US Army M1132
Stryker ESV (or CF LAV-Eng)
LAV-R – LAV 6.0 equipped as per GDLS' proposed
Stryker MRV
Rather more lethal than 'jeeps' – SANG's self-propelled mortars and anti-tank missiles
One of the more imposing of the earlier SANG LAV II variants was the LAV-M or LAV-M(S) for LAV-Mortar (Saudi). Armed with a 120mm mortar in a 360° traverse turret by Delco, the mortar is a breech-loader by Royal Ordnance able to fire up to 8 rounds per minute or burst of 3 rounds in 15 seconds. LAV-M can also attack other armoured vehicles with precision-guided projectiles. It can penetrate 700 mm of armour from a high angle of attack ... assuming the LAV is safely hidden. [8]
The LAV-M's Delco/RO Advanced Mortar System (AMS) can fire 13.8 kg bombs up to 8 km away. But the strength of the mortar remains its ability to fire at steep angles – in the case of the AMS, the mortar tube can be raised to +80° elevation. This makes LAV-M an ideal street fighting weapon. Not a skill set usually associated with 'home guard' but perfect for civil war.
For LAV 6.0s, the Saudis have the option of BAE's improved AMS II with all-electric drives and superior fire control system. The AMS II fires up to 13 rounds per minute out to 10 km. The larger LAV 6.0 hull accomodates 65 mortar bombs compared with a LAV-M's 40 rounds. Other turreted 120mm mortar options for Saudi LAV 6.0s would be the Patria NEMO (shown in the sideview image, above) or the NEMO's twin-barrelled predecessor, the Patria AMOS.
The SANG LAV fleet has another 'tank-killer' – the LAV-AT (for Anti-Tank). This vehicle is armed with TOW missiles, designed specifically to knock out tanks. As with LAV-M, a LAV-AT works best when well-hidden from better-armoured vehicles. Again, firing from cover ideally suits urban warfare.
For a LAV 6.0 equivalent to LAV-AT, the Saudis have the option of Raytheon's M41
Saberturret (above, right).
Saber is claimed to be an improvement upon the LAV-M's Emerson 901 turret (above, left). Saudi Arabia has ordered over 15,000 new BGM-71 TOW 2B missiles. [9]
"Gimme danger, little stranger And I feel your disease...": The cost of arming the SANG
Potential LAV 6.0 variants will only matter to Canadians who care what the Saudis do with these armoured vehicles in the future. A look at the past use of SANG LAV IIs is the best way to gauge the future. In 2011-2013, SANG LAVs took part in crushing the 'Arab Spring' protests by Saudi Shi'ites (as well as helping neighbouring Bahrain to crush protest in that Persian Gulf state). The pattern of SANG use of LAVs against civilians seems pretty clear.
Canadian arms export regulations are also intended to ensure that new weapon systems do not contribute to regional destabization. For the last year, Saudi Arabia led the intervention by Arab states in Yemen. In March 2015, Canada's Foreign Affairs issued a statement which supported "military action by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners [...] to defend Saudi Arabia's border." [10] Whether 'support' extends to indiscriminate bombing of civilians by the Royal Saudi Air Force or the use of foreign mercenaries to fight on behalf of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council member states is not recorded. To this we must add SANG LAVs on the Yemeni border. That deployment is within the rights of Saudi Arabia but it won't contribute to the regional stability sought after by Global Affairs Canada.
If the Government of Canada genuinely believes that regional stability can be achieved on the Arabian Peninsula, Minister of Global Affairs Stéphane Dion needs to rethink his arms export position. Dion has stated, in effect, that if we don't export arms for the Saudi Arabia National Guard, one of our allies will ... a kind of cash-based
Realpolitik. When morals and ethics re-enter the equation, Dion says that his aim is for Canada to be an 'honest broker' in the Middle East. But if we are only selling arms to one side, how can Canada be that honest broker? It is time for Dion and Global Affairs Canada to review their stance on selling Saudi Arabia Canadian-made armoured vehicles. SANG LAV 6.0s will make a bad situation worse.
[1] Loyalty is to King Salman and his clique but the Saudi royal family has ~15,000 members with as many as 7,000 princes. (House of Saud founder, Ibn Saud, had 1,000 grandchildren.)
[2] CMI Defense is based at Seraing in Liège province (in French-speaking Wallonia region). Since the Dutch-speaking Flemish Region's government banned all military exports to Saudi Arabia, there has been some confusion. Although depicted by the press as a 'Belgian ban', it applies only to Flemish industry. Wallonian arms exports to Saudi Arabia have increased.
[3] The rather bizarre company name is the result of a merger between two Virginian firms – arms maker Alliant Techsystems and launch-booster maker Orbital Sciences Corporation.
[4] CV HP pressure is 120% of the standard NATO L7 105 mm gun with peak recoil forces of 150 kN. L7 barrel is L/52 (5.46 m long). CV HP is L/51, 5.54 m long including muzzle brake.
[5] The odds of a successful tank-kill by CMI medium-pressure 90mm gun on the LAV-AGs have been improved with the introduction of the gun-launched
Falarick 90 guided-missile.
[6] Luch is Ukrainian state-owned ('SKDB' is for State Kyiv Design Bureau).
Falarick 105, originally
Izdelie 105 (or '
Item 105'), is part of a series of Ukrainian tank-launched missiles – including
Falarick 90 and Falarick 120, plus others in Soviet 100 mm and 115 mm calibres.
[7] Mac MacKay's photographs of LAV IIs prepared for export are from a 20 Jan 2012 post,
in his
.
[8] Staying hidden reflects the LAV's comparative thin armour protection. LAV armour was designed to deflect 14.5mm bullets.
Abrams tank glacis plates are intended to defeat 125mm rounds. LAV-M/LAV-M(S) is referred to by BAE (which absorbed RO) as 'LAV-120 AMS'. The Saudi Arabia National Guard received at least 73 LAV-M variants sometime after 1995.
[9] At least 500 of these Saudi missiles, via the CIA, were delivered to the Free Syrian Army. Human Rights Watch has accused the FSA of war crimes including the execution of POWs.
[10] Global Affairs Canada now lists this March 2015 statement as 'content archived offline'.
, by then-Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson, is still available online at the
.
