- إنضم
- 2 يناير 2019
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العكس تماما .... مصر دوله منفتحه وكما رأينا هنا الإخوه بارك الله فيهم .... أي فيديو لأي شخص مصري حتى لو في قريه منعزله يأتون به من الشبكه العنكبوتية ويعرضوه هنا .وايضر زيادة نسبة الوفيات لها تفسير علمي وموضوعي في المقال التالي .... ومنها بالفعل قلة عدد المسحات مقارنة بعدد السكان ..... لكن من الواضح ان الفارق ليس كبيرا كما تدعي او يدعي غيرك منغير المختصين او حتى المطلعين ..... لذلك في المجال العام لايوجد شيء اسمه اخفاء ..... في المقابل ..... دول أخرى يوجد بها انعدام كامل للشفافية .... لاتعرف من تم حجرهم واين ولماذا تغلق القرى والمدن .... ولم نرى أية عمليات تقصي الحالات بذلك العدد وتلك المنهجية مثلما حدث بمصر .... وذلك يرجع في الأصل ان فيروس كورونا القديم كان متواجد في جنوب شرق اسيا والخليج بكثره منذ عدة سنوات ..... بالإضافه الى العماله الآسيوية التي تتنقل بين جنوب شرق اسيا والخليج بكثره والإنتشار الكبير في إيران بسبب الإنفتاح الكبير على الصين ..... لكن في المرحلة الأولي من الجائحه في مصر كانت الحالات كلها مرصوده ويتم تتبعها وكانت قادمه من أوروبا او من العمرة ......
وأرشح لك هذا المقال لتستفيد كيفية البحث العلمي والموضوعية والوضوح في طرح كل ال Pros & cons
انت والأخ هجصأصص ...... لترى ان في مصر هناك عمل جاد وموضوعي وعقول فذه ..... اللهم اجعلها بفائدة لأهل مصر و المسلمين اجمعين .
Egypt’s Blind spot curve
I created a curve which I believe is a true reflection of the current situation in Egypt.
Before I start explaining the blind spot curve, I will briefly go through some facts.
What are the phases of an epidemic?
Any epidemic has to pass through 3 phases.
Phase 1 starts by sporadic cases and local clusters (known as the contained stage).
In phase 2 the virus starts a widespread transmission in the community (the main wave) then it hits the full epidemic where pressure on the healthcare services becomes evident.
Finally, in phase 3, the number of cases start to decline where the Herd immunity starts to develop.
Regardless to how tough the restrictions imposed by governments, the transition between phases will happen and the curve will take its shape. That is the natural course of any epidemic. There are no shortcuts.
How to manage an epidemics?
Management is hugely different depending on the phase of the epidemic with one common goal which is buying time.
Phase 1 is managed by identifying and isolating every single case. Either through quarantine or cluster isolation. Authorities should have a record of each and every case on their radar. Then trace their contacts. It takes one unidentifiable case to shift the curve to phase 2. The main goal of phase 1 is to delay and prepare for phase 2 and not to prevent it!
Phase 2 is generally managed by mass isolation. Since numbers are usually huge and often unidentifiable, quarantine is no longer a viable option. In absence of effective treatment, Complete lockdown to hinder the viral spread is the only effective measure (Partial lockdown is more of a treatment to the economy than it is to the public health). The main role of social distancing, lockdown and curfew is to prolong each phase and stretch the curve to the widest possible base. All public healthcare facilities will have the biggest role in crisis management at this stage, hence should have a clear pre-planned protocol.
Phase 3 is the exit strategy phase which entitle release of the individually immune cases either by mass vaccination (sadly not available to date) or by testing for natural immunity (COVID19 IgG testing).
Almost every country in the glob mismanaged the crisis either because of prioritising economy over public health or because of false sense on natural immunity.
How did Egypt do so far?
I praised and praised and will keep on praising the Egyptian government efforts in containing the virus in phase 1. It made an impressive job in extending phase 1 much longer than many other countries. But It is time to realize that we have already slipped into phase 2. And if they continue to manage phase 2 by phase 1 strategy, it will simply not work and the system will eventually collapse.
Why are numbers in Egypt relatively low in view of lack of proper social isolation?
Simply because Egypt is currently in the blind spot phase of the curve where there is huge discrepancy between the diagnosed cases/reported fatalities and reality. This is due to a combination of the fast spreading silent nature of the virus (carriers) and the defective diagnostic tool leading to massive underestimation of the active cases as well as misdiagnosed fatalities.
I genuinely believe that this is not because authorities are trying to hide the true figures. But because they have lost the ability to trace cases which is a sign of transition to phase 2.
Why are Hospitals not under strain then?
From a personal experience, this only happens in late phase 2 when the actual numbers reach tens of thousands and we are not there yet!!
What are the drawbacks of the blind spot?
A public false sense of security leading to loosening of the social distancing measures and accelerating phase 2 which will eventually lead to pressurising the healthcare care system at the most critical stage.
I am aware that my views may be heavily criticized and some of you may see me like this ?. But I urge you to open your mind and reason your thoughts.
Finally, my aim is not to scare you but to send a clear message that “The game is far from over”.. Stay at home .. Stay safe
By Prof Dr.Hesham Taher
Ain Shams university
احنا حنينين شويه معلش ?
الخليج والسودان والشام والمغرب العربي هم أهلنا وناسنا وعزوتنا .....اترك عنك بعض المراهقين وتجاهلهم.
