ABOUT UKRAINIAN ROCKETS AND AMERICAN REBUS
The former ambassador of the United States to Ukraine, now an expert at the Brookings Institution's think tank, Steven Pifer, left Twitter on the tweet. On November 3, he wrote, literally translating as follows: "Ukraine is developing a Thunder class earth-earth rocket with a range of 450 km. At one time, the states could force Ukraine to prevent it from doing so. Not now".
The content is somewhat confusing, but such things are simply not written by such persons.
So what is the American Rebus saying and to whom is it addressed?
The first version. Stephen Pifer is a man who is extremely knowledgeable in all the details about weapons and existing arms control agreements. I confirm this because of my own experience of communicating with Stephen Payfer during his ambassadorial work in Kyiv. He is not mistaken in numbers. Rather, it was not mistaken in figures before. Therefore, when he writes about the 450-km-long Thunder missile, this can be seen as a transparent hint that, allegedly, Ukraine violates the agreements not to develop missile weapons with a range of over 280 km.
I will explain. At the time when Ukraine joined the Missile Technology Control Regime, Americans were pressed for such a limitation. So, now Pifer, as a true partner and friend of Ukraine, hints that in the current realities, Ukraine can come up with the red limit flags that the United States itself has put us in? And his tweet - to our officials and the military? Like, everything is ok. America is with you. We will not give you our lethal weapons, but do not forbid to make our own weapons of retribution. Sounds seductive, but unlikely. Especially after the Budapest memorandum.
The more is the opposite. To date, none of the Ukrainian high-level officials familiar with missile projects has spoken of their range of more than 280 kilometers. Therefore, such a statement by Pifer looks either as a betrayal or as a provocation. Because if Pifer is right, then we need to explain why we are breaking the restrictions imposed on the MTCR, although, as for me, we have a good chance to get rid of them. If it is not right, one must demand refutations from the diplomat.
Second version.Pyfer's blundering message is a reminder to American structures. Like, with the current engagement of your own problems, you do not forget to look around the sides. Twitter Pifer appeared November 3,
just after the Ukrainian president visited Saudi Arabia. This visit is hard to call an extravaganza.But, as Petro Alekseevich himself said in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, "two very important contracts in the sphere of military-technical cooperation are now being implemented. Both Ukraine and Saudi Arabia are fully satisfied with their implementation. " I can assume that one of these projects is the development of an operational-tactical complex called "Thunder-2". This is a simplified version of "Thunder". The prospect of the appearance of new rocket weapons from Saudis, whether from Ukraine or from Russia, is unlikely to coincide with American interests.
US logic: "Simplifying the Hajj procedure - no questions. Shifting rocket weapons never before. If the information warning about the engines for North Korea did not work, then you have one warning lighthouse - from the friend of Ukraine Stephen Pifer. "
Now there are a few personal comments. The past practice shows that in rocket projects that Ukraine had previously implemented, namely Borisfen complexes, and then Sapsan, the periods of long decline, "freezing" began right after significant breakthroughs.
Currently, the "Thunder-2" project really has progress. With solid fuel. Fighting part. Launch installation.
The sooner the "Thunder-2", the faster and cheaper our army will receive "Thunder". That was and remains true to the logic in terms of our business and our interests.
However, de facto cases are dealt with by others.
I know that at least four people - both high-ranking officials and those headed by our key defense companies, which, in fact, depend on the quality and timing of the Grimm-2 project, are now being overlooked by our law enforcement agencies organs, including NABU. It's harder to do missiles. Coincidence? Do not think.
Regardless of the work of NABA, I can say with high probability: The United States is not interested in Ukraine's significant progress in the development of high-tech rocket weapons. Like any other country. Therefore, we have to do this. Because that's right. To be in this world a tiny agrarian country is not enough.
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