the white house has fixed an appointment for president barack obama and
prime minister binyamin netanyahu to hold talks on sept. 27, debkafile’s
washington sources report. Netanyahu will spend ten days in the united
states, during which he will address the un general assembly and launch
israel’s counter-attack on the virulently anti-semitic themes of iran’s
official anti-israel propaganda.
This timeline indicates that the prime minister is inclined to
accommodate president obama by delaying once again an israeli attack on
iran’s nuclear program until after the us presidential election on nov.
6.
It stands to reason that netanyahu would not fix a date with obama to
take place after an attack, or that the president would receive him.
That being the case, there will not be much for them to talk about.
Obama stood up to the blasts from a number of influential american
editorial writers and strategic analysts who urged him to offer israel a
solemn commitment for a pre-emptive american offensive against iran
from the knesset podium, as a means of holding the netanyahu government
back from military action in the fall of 2012. Another suggestion was
for the president to formally notify the us congress of his plans for
military action if iran persisted in speeding the development of
ifs nuclear weapon capacity.
Obama rejected both suggestions – and iran continued to accelerate its advance towards a nuclear weapon undisturbed.
Thursday, diplomats close to the international atomic energy agency in
vienna, disclosed that iran had installed another 1,000 uranium
enrichment machines in its fortified underground facility at fordo, and
was expanding its production of 20-percent refined uranium.
Experts not bound by the iaea’s diplomatic constraints report that
enrichment climbed to 30 percent some months ago and was now on the way
to 60 percent. At least 3,000 centrifuges were now spinning at fordo.
Israel recently passed information to washington that iran had already developed a radioactive (dirty) bomb.
Yet us official spokesmen keep on intoning that there is still room for
diplomacy - even after all the parties admitted that the six power
talks with tehran broke down irretrievably weeks ago. And friday, aug.
24, seven hours of argument between the iaea and iranian representatives
failed to dent iran’s implacable opposition to any reduction in its
nuclear drive or the slightest transparency.
One can only conclude that, even after iran has the bomb, the mantra
“there is still room for diplomacy” will continue to issue from official
us mouths and the washington-tehran dialogue drag on, possibly through
new channels, as it does with pyongyang.
After they meet, the us president may reward the israeli prime minister
with a marginally more assertive statement about iran as a sort of
consolation prize for his restraint. But that will not change the fact
that neither has raised a finger to halt a nuclear iran, both preferring
to bow to domestic political pressures and considerations.
Their inaction has given two middle east leaders a major boost for progress on their own nuclear initiatives.
Last march, saudi prince bandar bin sultan, who was recently appointed
head of general intelligence, travelled secretly to beijing and
returned with chinese president hu jintao’s consent to sell saudi arabia
nuclear-capable css-5 dong-feng 21 mrbm ballistic missiles. He also
agreed to send over chinese nuclear engineers and technicians to help
saudi arabia develop uranium enrichment and other nuclear production
capacities.
This work is already in progress at the king abdulaziz city for science and technology near riyadh.
in the last few weeks, saudi crown prince salman launched negotiations
with tehran on a non-aggression pact and other understandings covering
bilateral cooperation behind america’s back on such issues as syria.
it should be obvious from this development alone that the middle east
nuclear race, which both president obama and prime minister netanyahu
admitted would be triggered by a nuclear iran, unless preempted, is in
full flight, a fact of which they have neglected to inform the general
public in both countries.
But there is more.
After less than three months in office, the egyptian president mohamed
morsi is following in saudi footsteps: He will kick off his first
foreign trips next week with a visit to beijing, where he hopes to take a
leaf out of the saudi nuclear book. He then touches down in tehran,
ostensibly to attend the non-aligned organization’s summit opening there
on aug. 26, but meanwhile to cultivate ties with tehran for common
action in the middle east.
He has laid the ground for this by proposing the creation of a new
“contact group” composed of egypt, saudi arabia, iran and turkey to
disentangle the syrian conflict – again behind america’s back.
The optimistic presumption that the egyptian president will have to
dance to washington’s tune to win economic assistance is proving
unfounded.
And obama’s hands are tied.
In june 2009, he bound his administration’s middle east policy to
mending american ties with the muslim brotherhood. Today, he can hardly
starve the new cairo administration of financial aid.
And the egyptian president is riding high. Believing he can get away
with it, he may even proclaim from tehran that the two nations have
decided to resume diplomatic relations after they were cut off for 31
years.
This chain of events confronts israel with three strategic predicaments:
1. Even if riyadh, cairo and tehran are unable to come to terms in
their first efforts at understanding, the fact remains that saudi arabia
and egypt have set their faces toward détente with iran.
2. Saudi arabia and egypt are on the road to a nuclear weapon although egypt is still trailing far behind.
3. In the five weeks remaining before the obama-netanyahu meeting,
iran, egypt, saudi arabia and china will be moving forward vigorously
toward their strategic, military and nuclear goals, while the us and
israel will be stuck in the doldrums of their interminable argument over
who goes first against iran – if at all.debkafile, political analysis, espionage, terrorism, security
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