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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is paying more attention to the Korean People's Air and Air-Defence Force (KPAF) than the country's previous leaders. But, as Haena Jo argues, attention alone will not fulfil the KPAF's need to recapitalise its combat aircraft inventory.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK’s) ballistic-missile activities and its associated nuclear-weapons programme remain a priority for the regime and those who closely watch the insular nation. Recently, however, the Korean People’s Air and Air-Defence Force (KPAF) has become a greater focus for the country’s leader Kim Jong-un.
Some of the benefits this attention has brought about are not normally associated with the support and development of airpower, not least of all an air-force pig farm – in April 2017, Kim made a public appearance to inspect ‘Taechon Pig Farm’ – that provides food to help improve the diet of pilots.
The need to address basic issues such as sustenance for aircrew underscores the challenges faced by the air force; it has been starved of resources and has to make do with an inventory of obsolescent or obsolete aircraft. While the KPAF, in theory, has more than 400 operational tactical fighter aircraft, these are nearly all Soviet-era designs or Chinese versions thereof from the 1950s and 1960s. Furthermore, aircrew flying hours are barely enough to maintain their proficiency in the basics of flight.
Air engagement
Since taking power, Kim has been far more interested in and involved with the air force than his predecessors. He has been present for air-force training exercises and combat-flight contests. North Korean state-media reports also suggest that he has made multiple visits to air-force units per year, although this seems to have declined recently.
In addition, the North Korean leader launched the annual ‘Day of Airmen’ on 29 November 2012 to celebrate the air force’s contribution to the country’s security, and held the ‘first meeting of airpersons’ on 15 April 2014 to which all KPAF pilots were invited – the first time so many of the aircrew were brought together. Kim also established the yearly ‘combat-flight contest’ for KPAF air commanding officers in 2014 . The combat-flight contest has been carried out every year since (except in 2018), with the 2019 event taking place at Wonsan Kalma airfield on 16 November.
Greater engagement by the regime, however, has its limits. At some point, the KPAF needs to begin to recapitalise its inventory and increase flying hours and aircraft availability to retain even a modicum of conventional capability in the future.
Mass effect
The estimated size of North Korea’s air force is more than 110,000 personnel with a notional inventory of more than 400 fighter aircraft, 80 light bombers and more than 200 transport aircraft, according to the Military Balance+. How many of these are available at any one time, how many are in long-term storage and how many are beyond recovery are open questions. North Korea does not have the capacity to pay for enough fuel, cover maintenance costs or adequately train its pilots who may still accumulate less than 30 annual flying hours.
Source: Military Balance+
Note: inventory number shown where assesments can be made
Since 2014, the service has begun to repaint its aircraft to a light-grey scheme – this has been seen on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A, MiG-23 Flogger, Su-25 Frogfoot and MiG-21bis Fishbed. While a cosmetic change, this may reflect a desire to appear more modern as grey colour schemes are now more prevalent in capable air forces.
Upgrades elsewhere, if limited, do appear to have been implemented. Exactly when these took place, however, remains uncertain. The North Korean People’s Army Special Operation Force’s An-2 Colt/Y-5 transport aircraft, for example, have been seen fitted with rudimentary air-to-surface munitions at the first combat-flight contest on 10 May 2014. Some Colts also appear to have been fitted with satellite navigation and what might be a terrain-following radar on the lower fuselage. Such modifications would support the covert insertion role associated with special forces.
In recent years, there have been attempts by the KPAF to acquire uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities, with limited success so far. At least four North Korean UAVs have been found in South Korea since 2014, with the last reported to be seen in June 2017.
The air force’s air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons inventory is also ageing. The most ‘modern’ air-to-air missiles are the R-27R (AA-10A Alamo) carried by the MiG-29, but even these are likely to be well beyond a reasonable service life. There is also little evidence of North Korean tactical air-to-surface missile holdings. Trials of an air-launched variant of the Styx anti-ship missile from an Il-28 Beagle/H-5 light bomber were carried out in October 2008 and November 2011. Whether this capability has been pursued further is unknown. The more recent Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel) anti-ship missile would also be suitable as the basis for an air-launched weapon, but there is no evidence that this is an option being explored as of yet.
North Korea’s air force presents no conventional challenge to South Korea’s far more capable air force, nor the United States Air Force deployed in the region. However, the North Korean service cannot be ignored in the event of hostilities – this alone might result in the regime’s continued support to the KPAF. To regain a credible element of conventional airpower, the KPAF will need to begin with greater investment in its inventory. So far, there is no indication that this can be made available given the parlous state of North Korea’s economy.
This analysis originally featured on the IISS Military Balance+, the online database that provides indispensable information and analysis for users in government, the armed forces, the private sector, academia, the media and more. Customise, view, compare and download data instantly, anywhere, anytime. The Military Balance+ includes comprehensive data on fighter-aircraft fleets in air forces worldwide.
www.iiss.org
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK’s) ballistic-missile activities and its associated nuclear-weapons programme remain a priority for the regime and those who closely watch the insular nation. Recently, however, the Korean People’s Air and Air-Defence Force (KPAF) has become a greater focus for the country’s leader Kim Jong-un.
Some of the benefits this attention has brought about are not normally associated with the support and development of airpower, not least of all an air-force pig farm – in April 2017, Kim made a public appearance to inspect ‘Taechon Pig Farm’ – that provides food to help improve the diet of pilots.
The need to address basic issues such as sustenance for aircrew underscores the challenges faced by the air force; it has been starved of resources and has to make do with an inventory of obsolescent or obsolete aircraft. While the KPAF, in theory, has more than 400 operational tactical fighter aircraft, these are nearly all Soviet-era designs or Chinese versions thereof from the 1950s and 1960s. Furthermore, aircrew flying hours are barely enough to maintain their proficiency in the basics of flight.
Air engagement
Since taking power, Kim has been far more interested in and involved with the air force than his predecessors. He has been present for air-force training exercises and combat-flight contests. North Korean state-media reports also suggest that he has made multiple visits to air-force units per year, although this seems to have declined recently.
In addition, the North Korean leader launched the annual ‘Day of Airmen’ on 29 November 2012 to celebrate the air force’s contribution to the country’s security, and held the ‘first meeting of airpersons’ on 15 April 2014 to which all KPAF pilots were invited – the first time so many of the aircrew were brought together. Kim also established the yearly ‘combat-flight contest’ for KPAF air commanding officers in 2014 . The combat-flight contest has been carried out every year since (except in 2018), with the 2019 event taking place at Wonsan Kalma airfield on 16 November.
Greater engagement by the regime, however, has its limits. At some point, the KPAF needs to begin to recapitalise its inventory and increase flying hours and aircraft availability to retain even a modicum of conventional capability in the future.
Mass effect
The estimated size of North Korea’s air force is more than 110,000 personnel with a notional inventory of more than 400 fighter aircraft, 80 light bombers and more than 200 transport aircraft, according to the Military Balance+. How many of these are available at any one time, how many are in long-term storage and how many are beyond recovery are open questions. North Korea does not have the capacity to pay for enough fuel, cover maintenance costs or adequately train its pilots who may still accumulate less than 30 annual flying hours.
| lected DPRK combat aircraft, 2020 | |
| Fighter aircraft | 401 |
| MiG-15 Fagot | − |
| MiG-17 Fresco | 107 |
| J-5 | |
| MiG-19 Farmer | 100 |
| J-6 | |
| MiG-21F-13 Fishbed C | 120 |
| J-7 | |
| MiG-21PFM Fishbed F | − |
| MiG-23ML Flogger G | 46 |
| MiG-23 Flogger | 10 |
| MiG-29 Fulcrum A | 18 |
| MiG-29S Fulcrum C | |
| MiG-29UB Fulcrum B | |
| Fighter/ground attack | 30 |
| MiG-21bis Fishbed L | 30 |
| Su-7 Fitter | 18 in store |
| Attack | 34 |
| Su-25K Frogfoot A | 34 |
| Su-25UBK Frogfoot B |
Source: Military Balance+
Note: inventory number shown where assesments can be made
Since 2014, the service has begun to repaint its aircraft to a light-grey scheme – this has been seen on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A, MiG-23 Flogger, Su-25 Frogfoot and MiG-21bis Fishbed. While a cosmetic change, this may reflect a desire to appear more modern as grey colour schemes are now more prevalent in capable air forces.
Upgrades elsewhere, if limited, do appear to have been implemented. Exactly when these took place, however, remains uncertain. The North Korean People’s Army Special Operation Force’s An-2 Colt/Y-5 transport aircraft, for example, have been seen fitted with rudimentary air-to-surface munitions at the first combat-flight contest on 10 May 2014. Some Colts also appear to have been fitted with satellite navigation and what might be a terrain-following radar on the lower fuselage. Such modifications would support the covert insertion role associated with special forces.
In recent years, there have been attempts by the KPAF to acquire uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities, with limited success so far. At least four North Korean UAVs have been found in South Korea since 2014, with the last reported to be seen in June 2017.
The air force’s air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons inventory is also ageing. The most ‘modern’ air-to-air missiles are the R-27R (AA-10A Alamo) carried by the MiG-29, but even these are likely to be well beyond a reasonable service life. There is also little evidence of North Korean tactical air-to-surface missile holdings. Trials of an air-launched variant of the Styx anti-ship missile from an Il-28 Beagle/H-5 light bomber were carried out in October 2008 and November 2011. Whether this capability has been pursued further is unknown. The more recent Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel) anti-ship missile would also be suitable as the basis for an air-launched weapon, but there is no evidence that this is an option being explored as of yet.
North Korea’s air force presents no conventional challenge to South Korea’s far more capable air force, nor the United States Air Force deployed in the region. However, the North Korean service cannot be ignored in the event of hostilities – this alone might result in the regime’s continued support to the KPAF. To regain a credible element of conventional airpower, the KPAF will need to begin with greater investment in its inventory. So far, there is no indication that this can be made available given the parlous state of North Korea’s economy.
This analysis originally featured on the IISS Military Balance+, the online database that provides indispensable information and analysis for users in government, the armed forces, the private sector, academia, the media and more. Customise, view, compare and download data instantly, anywhere, anytime. The Military Balance+ includes comprehensive data on fighter-aircraft fleets in air forces worldwide.
North Korea’s air force
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is paying more attention to the Korean People's Air and Air-Defence Force (KPAF) than the country's previous leaders. But, as Haena Jo argues, attention alone will not fulfil the KPAF's need to recapitalise its combat aircraft inventory.
www.iiss.org
